At The Fisher Group, we always remind our clients of one thing:
Real estate data needs context — otherwise, numbers can be misleading.

Lately, a TRREB chart showing GTA rental transactions from 2022 to 2025 has been circulating online.
The numbers look dramatic:

• 2022: 36,679 rental transactions

• 2025 (Jan–Sept): 57,705 rental transactions

At first glance, it’s easy to assume:

“Rental transactions are up — rental demand must be exploding.”

But when we dug into the data (as we always do for our clients), the story turned out to be very different.

Let’s walk you through what’s actually happening in our market.

1. More Rental Transactions ≠ More Renters

One of the biggest misconceptions we hear is:

“More leases = more people renting.”

Not necessarily.

Rental transaction volume counts completed leases, not the number of renters.
That number can rise even when population growth slows — which is exactly what’s happening now.

So if renter households didn’t suddenly surge…
Why are rental transactions rising so quickly?

The answer lies in three major structural changes in the GTA housing market.

2. Why Rental Transactions Are Really Increasing (What We See on the Ground)

As full-time realtors working across Oakville, Burlington, Mississauga, and the GTA, we see these trends daily — both through the data and through real client situations.

Reason 1: More buyers are priced out and forced to rent

This is the biggest driver.

Affordability has deteriorated across the GTA:

• High interest rates

• High home prices

• Income failing to keep pace

We’re meeting many families who want to buy — but can’t qualify or can’t comfortably carry today’s payments.

What happens?

They stay in the rental market longer.

These renters are not “new demand.”
They are would-be buyers pushed out of ownership.

And that pushes rental transactions higher.

Reason 2: Unsold condos and townhomes are shifting to rentals

This is something The Fisher Group sees firsthand when working with sellers.

When a property sits longer in today’s slower market, many owners choose to:

• pause their sale

• lease the unit

• wait for a better selling climate

We’ve helped several clients navigate this exact situation — running the numbers, evaluating cash flow, and deciding whether renting temporarily is the smarter move.

When thousands of owners across the GTA make the same decision, the rental supply increases dramatically.

More rental inventory inevitably means:

More rental transactions — without needing more renters.

Reason 3: Purpose-built rental buildings are hitting the market in large waves

In the past 18–24 months, purpose-built rental (PBR) projects have surged.

These new buildings:

• introduce hundreds of rental units at once

• produce dozens to hundreds of TRREB-recorded lease transactions

• significantly inflate the total rental volume

This is especially visible in high-growth areas like Downtown Toronto, Mississauga City Centre, and sections of North Oakville.

Again, this reflects a supply increase, not a sudden surge of renter households.

3. But wait — isn’t population growth slowing down? Yes. And that’s important.

If rental demand were truly “exploding,” we’d expect the population to be rising quickly.

But the opposite is happening:

• Canada’s new immigrant numbers in early 2025 are down 22%

• Temporary resident policies have tightened

• Student and work visa approvals have dropped

So renter household formation is not accelerating.

Which means the spike in rental transactions must come from somewhere else.

And now we know where:
buyers pushed into renting + sellers shifting to leasing + a large wave of new rental supply.

4. A Busy Rental Market Doesn’t Always Mean Great Investment Returns

Many investors assume:

“High rental activity = strong rental market = time to buy investment property.”

We wish it were that simple.

At The Fisher Group, when we analyze investment properties for clients, we look at:

• cash flow

• rent-to-price ratio

• interest rates

• vacancy risk

• carrying costs

• long-term neighbourhood fundamentals

Because even with rental activity high, many investors today are still running:

negative monthly cash flow.

And many rental units hitting the market are “forced rentals,” not strategic investments.

So rental volume alone does not indicate a healthy investment environment.

Final Thoughts from The Fisher Group

The GTA rental market is active — that part is true.
But the reasons behind the activity matter far more than the number itself.

What’s really driving the surge in rental transactions?

✔ Buyers priced out of ownership
✔ Sellers shifting unsold listings into the rental market
✔ A major increase in purpose-built rental supply

These are structural changes, not a demand explosion.

Understanding this helps our clients — buyers, sellers, and investors — make clearer, more confident decisions in today’s market.

If you’re trying to decide whether to:

• rent out your property

• buy your first home

• upgrade or downsize

• purchase an investment property

We’re here to analyze the numbers with you and help you make the most informed move.