The Greater Toronto Area housing market is showing early signs of recovery. July 2025 recorded 6,100 transactions — the highest July sales since 2021 and a 10.9% year-over-year increase. While interest rate cuts have paused due to economic uncertainty and global tariff concerns, the real estate landscape remains favourable for buyers.
Inventory Remains High, but Listings Start to Tighten
Although inventory levels remain historically high, the number of new listings slowed in July. By month’s end, active listings stood at 30,215 — still 26% higher than in July 2024, but slightly below the June 2025 peak of 31,600. While demand continues to grow, the recent drop in new listings marks a notable shift in supply, suggesting that the balance of negotiating power may be starting to shift back toward sellers.
Affordability Improves with Lower Prices and Rising Wages
Home prices continued to soften. The average selling price in July was $1,051,719, down 5.5% year-over-year and 4.5% compared to June 2025. While this trend may appear discouraging on the surface, it is enhancing affordability, especially when combined with rising household incomes and stabilizing mortgage rates. According to Royal LePage President and CEO Phil Soper, this may be the most affordable housing window Canadians have seen since the mid-1990s. TRREB President Elechia Barry-Sproule echoed this sentiment, observing that improved affordability is already translating into the increasing number of home sales.
Segment Performance Varies Across Property Types
Condominium prices averaged $651,483 in July, with 10,013 active listings offering buyers strong value opportunities despite ongoing year-over-year sales declines. Townhomes dropped in value by 7.4% to an average of $849,380, though sales rose slightly from June. Semi-detached homes sold for an average of $1,041,359, with inventory tightening but sales still below historical norms. Detached properties saw prices dip to $1,361,660, with sales holding steady at around 2,800 units, consistent over the past three months.
Looking Ahead: A Window That May Not Last
While it’s too early to declare a full recovery, signs of momentum are clear. More households are entering the market, supported by improved affordability and stable borrowing costs. However, if the pace of sales continues to accelerate, current conditions could shift, giving sellers more power and pushing prices higher again. For now, the second half of 2025 may represent a rare and promising window for buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.
Final Thoughts
While it’s too early to declare a full recovery, signs of momentum are becoming increasingly clear. The Greater Toronto Area housing market is gradually regaining its footing, supported by improved affordability, steady demand, and a large—though slightly tightening—supply of listings. Although uncertainty around interest rates and global economic conditions persists, the current environment remains favourable for buyers. For those considering entering the market, the combination of softened prices, ample inventory, and relatively stable mortgage rates presents a compelling window of opportunity. As the second half of 2025 unfolds, this delicate balance may shift, making timing more critical for prospective buyers and sellers.
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Contact The Fisher Group – Your Real Estate Experts in Oakville and the GTA
Fisher Yu
📱 647.598.8488
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