As we wrap up 2025, it’s becoming clear that 2026 will mark a true reset for Canada’s real estate market.
After two years of volatility, high interest rates, and uncertainty, the fundamentals are finally shifting in a positive direction:
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More inventory
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Lower borrowing costs
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Reduced competition
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Improved affordability
From our front-line experience in Oakville and the GTA, and based on national insights from Royal LePage, we believe 2026 will bring a calmer, healthier environment for both buyers and sellers.
Here’s what you need to know.
1. Home Prices Will Remain Stable in 2026
Based on the forecast, Canada’s aggregate home price is expected to rise 1% to $823,016 next year.
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Detached homes: +2%
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Condos: –2.5%
In practical terms:
👉 No big drops, no big spikes
👉 A balanced environment for making decisions without pressure
👉 A much more predictable year for buyers and sellers
For the Oakville and GTA market, this stability will be especially important after several unpredictable years.
2. The Rate-Cutting Cycle Is Nearly Over — and That’s a Good Thing
The Bank of Canada cut rates four times in 2025, bringing the overnight rate to 2.25%.
Economists widely expect the cycle to slow or pause in 2026.
This is actually positive for the market:
✔ Buyers no longer feel forced to “wait for the next cut”
✔ Mortgage payments are more predictable
✔ Confidence can rebuild
As Royal LePage noted:
“Mortgage rates are no longer the villain in this story. Buyers can move forward without worrying they’re missing out on cheaper money tomorrow.”
We see this sentiment every week in the GTA — cautious buyers are slowly re-entering the market.
3. Buyer Activity Is Expected to Rise — Slowly but Steadily
According to a national survey:
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28% of renters considered buying before renewing their lease
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Of those,
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40% were waiting for prices to drop
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29% were waiting for rates to fall
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With both factors stabilizing, this “on the sidelines” group is expected to step back into the market.
We are already observing:
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More showings
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More qualified buyers
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More serious conversations
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Offers with conditions (a sign of a healthy market)
The recovery will be gradual, but the direction is clear.
4. Government Housing Initiatives May Finally Move Forward
2026 could be the first year that large-scale federal housing initiatives begin producing visible results.
The Build Canada Homes (BCH) program aims to:
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Develop affordable housing
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Utilize federal lands
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Deliver 4,000 factory-built homes in its first phase
While this won’t dramatically shift supply overnight, it is a rare and meaningful step toward long-term housing availability.
If execution is strong, this could reshape affordability over the next decade.
5. Regional Differences Will Be Significant
Royal LePage forecasts:
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GTA: –4.5%
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Greater Vancouver: –3.5%
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Montreal: +5%
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Quebec City: +12% (strongest in Canada)
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Regina: +4%
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Most other cities: +0% to +2%
High-priced regions will continue to adjust, while more affordable markets attract new demand.
For many first-time buyers, this could be a rare opportunity to enter the GTA market during a period of relative calm.
The Fisher Group’s Perspective on 2026
Based on national forecasts and our experience in the Oakville–GTA market, we expect 2026 to be:
✔ A buyer’s market — but healthier than 2025
✔ A year of stability rather than volatility
✔ A slow and steady return of confidence
✔ A great year for upsizing, first-time buying, and long-term investing
✔ A market where negotiation remains strong
✔ A time when preparation matters deeply for sellers
This is not a year of dramatic price swings — it’s a year of rebuilding.
What This Means for You
If you’re a buyer:
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Take advantage of stability
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Negotiate with confidence
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Don’t wait for a dramatic drop or spike — neither is coming
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Opportunity improves when competition is low
If you’re a seller:
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Preparation is everything
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Pricing must reflect reality, not last year’s expectations
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Well-presented homes will outperform the market
If you’re an investor:
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Horizontal markets are ideal for long-term entry
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Rental demand remains strong
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Expect motivated sellers in certain segments
Final Thoughts: 2026 Is the Start of a New Chapter
After two challenging years, the Canadian housing market is finally stabilizing.
2026 will not be explosive, but it will be healthy, predictable, and full of opportunity — especially for thoughtful, well-prepared buyers and sellers.
If you’d like a personalized breakdown of what 2026 means for your neighbourhood, your property type, or your investment goals, our team is here to help.
Contact The Fisher Group – Your Real Estate Experts in Oakville and the GTA
Fisher Yu
📱 647.598.8488
📧 [email protected]
🌐 thefishergroup.ca
